Paul Craven on markets, magic & mental shortcuts
How real people make real decisions in the real world
You may have noticed a rebrand. With my growing interest in behavioural science, I have decided to dedicate my podcast to this wide ranging, fascinating and mind stretching subject. So from Paths Less Trodden to A Load of BS.
Human beings are odd, contradictory creatures and these conversations will dive into why we behave the way we do. Once you start on this subject, you’ll want to stick around. It is surprising, highly entertaining and confusing in equal measure.
What does remain from my first series of interviews is guests who challenge the status quo and force me at least to question everything with greater rigour. Sign up if you haven’t done so already.
Be sure also to subscribe on Apple or follow on Spotify to A Load of BS to get all the upcoming episodes in your favourite podcast app.
Introducing Paul Craven
My guest today is Paul Craven. Paul is a BS expert with close to 30 years experience in financial markets where he worked for Schroders, PIMCO and little known boutique Goldman Sachs. Under the umbrella now of Craven Partners, he is a keynote conference and after dinner speaker, covering topics such as decision making, investment and sales, all from a behavioural and psychological perspective.
Paul is also a magician, a member of the Magic Circle and a hickory golf enthusiast.
Paul’s favourite definition of Behavioural Economics is “how real people make real decisions in the real world.” And this is at the heart of what Paul and I try to disentangle in our conversation.
Where is Rory Sutherland Part 2?
I hear you ask. Since Paul and Rory are great mates, we thought we’d mix things up and give you the BS gospel according to Paul before returning to Rory the Sequel next week.
Today’s podcast is in two parts. In Part 1 here, we discuss:
Magic in business relationships
The bandwagon effect and confirmation biases in investing
The evolutionary value of decision making biases
Hindsight bias & why Paul is too cool to do drugs
Challenging pension fund investors
The media's bias for bad news
Books referenced in the podcast
Range: How Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World, by David Epstein
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think, by Hans Rosling and Ola Rosling
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For those here who aren’t already subscribed to Sunday BS: Behavioural Science Curious, here I share 3 ideas, thoughts or provocations from my readings of the last week. Some will be expansions from my podcasts, others will reflect my wider BS reading and thinking.
It’s short, sharp and fun. And will make you sound clever in meetings on Mondays! Give it a go. 😀
And let me know what you think, here or on Twitter @danielsjross.
Enjoy the show!